The most dangerous words a founder can hear are: "That sounds like a great idea! I'd definitely use that."
Why? Because talk is cheap. People are polite, and they will lie to your face to avoid hurting your feelings. The only truth in the startup world is behavior.
A Smoke Test is a way to measure behavior by offering a product that doesn't fully exist yet to see if people try to "buy" it. Here is how to run one in 60 seconds.
The Anatomy of a Smoke Test
A successful smoke test requires three components:
- The Hook: A clear value proposition (Headline).
- The Friction: A "Call to Action" (CTA) like an email signup or a "Pre-order" button.
- The Feedback: A "Thank You" page that confirms the interest.
Step 1: Define Your Conversion Threshold
Before you launch your waitlist on validatemy.app, you must decide what "success" looks like.
- Low Demand: < 2% conversion rate. (The problem isn't painful enough).
- Moderate Demand: 5% - 10% conversion rate. (You have something, but the hook needs work).
- High Demand: > 15% conversion rate. (Stop everything and start building immediately).
Step 2: Create "Synthetic Friction"
If you just ask for an email, you are measuring curiosity. If you want to measure intent, add a bit of friction.
Ask a qualifying question in your waitlist form, such as:
"What is the #1 tool you use for this right now?"
If people take the time to answer, they aren't just curious they are actively looking for a solution.
Step 3: Driving "Stress-Test" Traffic
A smoke test with zero visitors is just a ghost town. To get data fast, don't wait for SEO.
- Reddit/Hacker News: Post a "Show HN" or a helpful thread in a relevant subreddit.
- Cold Outreach: DM 20 people who are complaining about the problem on X (Twitter).
- Niche Communities: Share the link in Discords or Slack groups where your target users hang out.
The Ethics of Smoke Testing
Some founders feel "guilty" for having a waitlist for a product that isn't ready. Don't. You are saving your users' time by ensuring that when you do launch, you're building exactly what they need.
As long as you are honest on the "Thank You" page e.g., "We're building this right now and you'll be the first to know" you are providing value by listening.
Conclusion: Data Over Drama
Don't build based on a "gut feeling." Use a smoke test to turn your assumptions into a spreadsheet of emails.
Ready to run your first test? Launch your Smoke Test page now and find out if your idea has legs before the weekend is over.